This week, U.S. scientists announced that an El Niño system has formed in the Pacific Ocean.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said it has “not yet confirmed” an El Niño is underway, but noted sea surface temperatures are elevated.
In Australia, the weather pattern brings hot and dry conditions, and can lead to drought.
Here’s what you need to know.
Background
El Niño is a weather pattern featuring unusually warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
In Australia, it causes higher temperatures and can lead to droughts.
Unlike the increased rain during La Niña, the most direct consequence of El Niño is less rainfall.
La Niña
- Cooler temps
- More rain
- More cyclones
El Niño
- Hotter temps
- Less rain
- More bushfires and drought risk
Rainfall during El Niño also differs around the country:
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Announcement
On Thursday (local time), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said an El Niño has developed in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
NOAA scientists predict there is a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures will exceed 2.0ºC in the part of the Pacific they monitor for El Niño.
If the temperature exceeds 2.0ºC, it will be considered a “very strong” El Niño.
El Niño events in the U.S. tend to be strongest during December to February, causing drier and often warmer than usual winters.
A visualisation of the difference in average of the sea surface temperature, from 1 January to 8 June. Red indicates warmth. Source: NOAA Satellites
Australia
So, what does this announcement mean closer to home?
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) noted that while sea surface temperatures are at El Niño levels,“there needs to be a sustained response in the atmosphere before we confirm an El Niño event is underway.”
Previous BoM modelling has indicated the weather event could develop this winter.
“We need to observe an established response before we report the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño phase,” a BoM spokesperson said.
ENSO is the cyclical climate pattern of the tropical Pacific Ocean. It includes El Niño, La Niña (which generally brings more rain to Australia), and the neutral phase.
This week, BoM modelling predicted a moderate to strong El Niño.
International forecasters have previously predicted a “super” event this year.
