The most complicated count in Australian federal election history is taking place in Melbourne’s north.
13 candidates ran in the traditionally safe Labor seat of Calwell, which includes the suburbs of Broadmeadows, Craigieburn, and Greenvale.
The high number of candidates has created a tight race among four frontrunners.
As a result, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is conducting its “most complex” preference count ever.
Background
Calwell is a multicultural hub in Melbourne’s north.
More than two-thirds of residents have both parents born overseas, according to the latest Census.
Catholicism (26.6%) is the most common religion, while Islam (23.8%) is the second-most common.
Labor has safely held Calwell since it was created in 1984, but its primary vote has declined over the past three elections.
Candidates
Labor preselected Basem Abdo in Calwell to replace retiring MP Maria Vamvakinou. If elected, he’ll become the first Palestinian-Australian MP.
Carly Moore ran against Abdo in Calwell as an independent. A former local mayor, she claims governments treat the area as an “afterthought”.
Another independent, Joseph Youhana, Refugee Council of Australia board member, is on the ballot in Calwell.
Liberal candidate and cybersecurity expert Usman Ghani is also challenging Abdo in the seat.
Counting
After polls close, the first step is to count everyone’s first ‘preference’ (i.e. the candidates that had a ‘1’ placed next to their name).
If someone reaches a majority (more than 50%) from the first preference votes, then that person wins the seat.
If no-one reaches a majority after the first round, then whichever candidate received the fewest first preference votes is eliminated, and a second round of counting begins.
Anybody who voted #1 for that candidate has their vote transferred to the person they put in the #2 spot.
That process is repeated until all candidates except the winner and the runner-up have been excluded.
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This is called a ‘two-candidate preferred’ count.
It means that someone who comes third or fourth or fifth could end up as one of the final two candidates.
Calwell results
At the election, four candidates in Calwell received more than 10% of the primary vote.
Basem Abdo (Labor) – 30.5%
Usman Ghani (Liberal) – 15.7%
Carly Moore (Independent) – 11.9%
Joseph Youhana (Independent) – 10.7%
With Abdo seemingly so far ahead of the pack, why hasn’t he been declared the winner?
Preference flows
The AEC has now begun preference counts in Calwell, eliminating the nine other candidates who finished below the four frontrunners.
So far, the AEC has only distributed the preferences of six knocked-out candidates.
It will need to continue this process for another five candidates until we’re left with a two-candidate race.
Until these preference are known, it remains too early to tell if Abdo will retain the lead.
What next?
The AEC’s count could take some time to determine a final result, because it needs to figure out how all preferences will be distributed.
If Moore is knocked out, the independent’s preferences could help Youhana (also an independent) leapfrog the Liberal candidate into second place.
Both Moore and Youhana recommended voters preference Labor last, meaning they could help each other gain ground against Abdo.
The AEC has chosen to regularly update its preference count, which it rarely does.
If it becomes a Labor vs. Liberal two-candidate preferred contest, there could be a large proportion of voters who placed the two major party candidates as 12th and 13th on their ballot papers.
Ultimately, this means the winner could be decided from 12th place.
