The Federal Election is now just two weeks away, on Saturday 3 May.
In the lead-up, The Daily Aus will break down the tightest races in each state and territory.
In this piece, we’ll focus on Victoria — the second most populous jurisdiction in the country, home to 6.5 million people.
Background
Let’s first take a step back. This election, you’re voting for who you want to represent your:
- Local area in the House of Representatives.
- State or territory in the Senate.
For this piece, we’re going to focus on the House of Representatives, because that’s the house that determines which party will be in government.
Across the country, there are 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives. Victoria has 38 of those seats.
Marginal seats
Elections are normally won and lost in marginal seats.
These are the seats where voters tend to switch their party allegiance from election to election.
In this piece, we are breaking down 15 of the closest contests across Victoria.
A quick note: In each seat there are multiple candidates, but we have focused on the top two based on current polling.
Deakin
Deakin is located in eastern Melbourne, taking in suburbs including Vermont, Ringwood, and Heathmont.
It’s the tightest federal contest in Victoria, with the last election being decided by fewer than 400 votes.
Senior Liberal MP Michael Sukkar will face off against Labor’s Matt Gregg for the second time.
Menzies
Menzies is a Liberal-held seat in eastern Melbourne, based around the suburbs of Warrandyte, Templestowe and Box Hill. It’s named after Australia’s longest serving Prime Minister, Robert Menzies.
Around two in five people in the electorate at the last Census were of Chinese ancestry. Despite the Liberal Party winning the seat, there was a swing against the party compared to previous elections.
Casey
Casey includes Warburton, Healesville, and Belgrave on the eastern outskirts of Melbourne.
Polling consistently shows a low primary vote for the Coalition and Labor, although they remain the central challengers for the seat.
Dunkley
Dunkley is based around Frankston, Seaford, and Mount Eliza in Melbourne’s outer south-east.
Sitting MP Peta Murphy died in late 2023. Her successor, Jodie Belyea, won the seat at a by-election in March 2024.
The Liberal Party has put forward local mayor Nathan Conroy, who lost the by-election but secured a 3.5% swing.
Goldstein
Goldstein is located in Melbourne’s inner south-eastern suburbs, including Highett, Brighton, and Sandringham.
Teal candidate Zoe Daniel defeated then-Liberal MP Tim Wilson in 2022.
Daniel and Wilson are facing off again in another showdown for Goldstein.
Kooyong
Kooyong is based in Melbourne’s inner-east, taking in the suburbs of Hawthorn, Kew, and Camberwell.
Former federal Liberal leaders Robert Menzies and Andrew Peacock have held Kooyong. Monique Ryan won the seat in 2022 from then-Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
McEwen
McEwen is located north west of Melbourne, taking in the semi-regional towns of Woodend, Whittlesea, and Macedon.
The seat has switched hands over the past few decades, but has been held by Rob Mitchell since 2010.
Labor’s support has been eroded and it is expected to be a tight contest.
Aston
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Aston is an outer-eastern Melbourne seat, which includes the suburbs of Boronia, Ferntree Gully, and Bayswater.
The traditionally-safe Liberal seat flipped at a 2023 by-election, marking the first time in a century that a sitting government has won a seat from the Opposition in a by-election.
The Liberal Party is hoping to regain the seat.
Wannon
Wannon is a vast regional electorate in south-western Victoria, with population bases in Warrnambool, Portland, and Colac.
Senior Liberal MP Dan Tehan will face off against former Triple J presenter and comedian Alex Dyson for the third time.
Chisholm
Chisholm is an inner-eastern suburbs electorate taking in areas like Chadstone, Mount Waverley, and Ashwood.
Coalition Leader Peter Dutton held a pre-campaign event in Mount Waverley in January. Former Liberal MP Katie Allen is hoping to win the seat back for the party.
Bruce
Bruce takes in parts of south-eastern Melbourne, including Dandenong, Narre Warren, and Endeavour Hills.
The seat has been held by Labor since 1996. Julian Hill, who was elected as the Mayor of Port Phillip at the age of 25, has held the seat since 2016.
Entrepreneur Zahid Safi is running for the Liberal Party.
Corangamite
Corangamite covers a mix of retirement towns and beach destinations outside Geelong.
Libby Coker won Corangamite for Labor in 2019. The Liberal Party has put forward former special forces soldier Darcy Dunstan to try win it back (prior to 2007, it was a safe Liberal seat).
Hawke
Hawke lies between Melbourne and Ballarat, taking in the outer suburbs of Melton, Bacchus Marsh, and Ballan.
Peter Dutton has been targeting this seat with his message to the mortgage-stressed outer suburbs of Australia’s big cities.
Wills
Wills takes in Melbourne’s inner-northern suburbs, spanning Coburg, Brunswick, and Fawkner.
It was a Labor stronghold for most of its existence and was the seat of former Prime Minister Bob Hawke.
Former Victorian Greens leader Samantha Ratnam is hoping to win the seat from Labor.
Cooper
Cooper is located in Melbourne’s inner north, based around the suburbs of Preston, Northcote, and Thornbury.
The contest in the progressive-leaning inner suburbs of Melbourne is normally between Labor and the Greens.
At the last election, the Greens secured a 6% swing in the party’s favour.
Other VIC seats
LABOR
Isaacs 6.9%
Holt 7.1%
Gorton 10.0%
Gellibrand 11.5%
Bendigo 12.1%
Macnamara 12.2%
Jagajaga 12.3%
Calwell 12.4%
Maribyrnong 12.4%
Lalor 12.8%
Corio 12.8%
Ballarat 13.0%
Hotham 14.3%
Scullin 15.6%
Fraser 16.5%
LIBERAL
Monash 2.9%
Flinders 6.7%
La Trobe 8.7%
NATIONAL
Nicholls 3.8%
Mallee 19.0%
Gippsland 20.6%
INDEPENDENT
Indi 9.1%
GREENS
Melbourne 6.5%
