What's happening in NSW this federal election, explained

The Federal Election is now just two weeks away, on Saturday 3 May. Mark your calendar!

In the lead-up, The Daily Aus is breaking down the tightest races in each state and territory.

In this piece, we’ll focus on NSW — the most populous jurisdiction in the country, home to eight million people.

Background

Let’s first take a step back. This election, you’re voting for who you want to represent your:

Local area in the House of Representatives.
State or territory in the Senate.

For this piece, we’re going to focus on the House of Representatives, because that’s the house that determines which party will be in government.

Across the country, there are 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives. NSW has 46 of those seats.

Marginal seats

Elections are normally won and lost in marginal seats.

These are the seats where voters tend to switch their party allegiance from election to election.

In this piece, we are breaking down 15 of the closest contests across NSW.

A quick note: In each seat there are multiple candidates, but we have focused on the top two based on current polling.

Gilmore

The NSW south coast-based seat covers a diverse electorate, stretching from Nowra and Erowal Bay to Batemans Bay.

Labor’s Fiona Philips came close to losing the ultra-marginal seat in 2022.

She’s facing off again against former NSW Liberal Minister Andrew Constance.

Bennelong

Bennelong takes in Sydney’s north shore suburbs of Lane Cove, Ryde, and Hunters Hill. It was previously held by former Prime Minister John Howard.

Labor’s Jerome Laxale won the seat in a tight race at the 2022 election.

After the AEC’s redistribution, it is now technically a Liberal-held seat.

Fowler

Fowler is a Western Sydney seat based around the suburbs of Cabramatta, Liverpool, and Fairfield.

Once ranked among Labor’s safest seats, it tried to install former NSW Premier Kristina Kennelly at the 2022 poll. She lost to independent Dai Le.

Tu Le wants to regain Fowler for Labor.

Cowper

Cowper is a mid-north coast seat covering areas like Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, and Kempsey.

Independent challenger Caz Heise had a huge swing towards her in the traditionally safe Nationals seat in 2022.

It’s a second showdown between the sitting MP Pat Conaghan and Heise.

Robertson

Robertson is located on the lower Central Coast, encompassing Umina Beach, Terrigal, and around Gosford.

It’s a classic swing seat: changing hands between the two major parties between elections.

Former Liberal MP Lucy Wicks, who held the seat for nine years, is recontesting.

Paterson

Paterson is a regional NSW seat based around Maitland, extending down to the coastal towns around Fingal Bay.

Polling suggests the regional seat could switch hands to the Liberal Party for the first time in nine years.

At the 2022 election, the Liberal Party received a 4.2% swing towards them, bucking the national trend against the party.

Hunter

Hunter is a regional NSW seat taking in the Hunter Valley towns of Cessnock and Singleton, traditionally made up of coal mining communities and wineries, stretching down to Lake Macquarie suburbs like Morisett.

The margin in the traditionally safe Labor territory has been slashed over recent elections.

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Wentworth

Wentworth is located in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, taking in affluent suburbs such as Rose Bay, Bondi, and Paddington.

It is currently held by independent Allegra Spender, but previously was considered a safe Liberal seat, held by former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Bradfield

Bradfield is based in the upper north shore of Sydney and includes the suburbs of Gordon, Wahroonga, and St Ives.

Independent challenger Nicolette Boele is running again against the Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, who is replacing outgoing former minister and senior Liberal MP Paul Fletcher.

Reid

Reid encompasses inner-west to south-western Sydney, taking in suburbs like Concord, Five Dock, and Homebush.

The once-safe Labor seat was held by the Liberal Party between 2013 and 2022. Labor’s Sally Sitou won back the seat in 2022.

Ex-ADF troop Grange Chung is trying to regain it for the Liberal Party.

Werriwa

South-west Sydney seat based around Macqaurie Fields, Bonnyrigg, and Casula.

Werriwa is traditional Labor territory, having been held by two ex-federal Labor leaders — Gough Whitlam and Mark Latham.

Pollsters say the mortgage-stressed seat is up for grabs at this election, where cost of living pressures are mounting.

Dobell

Dobell is a Central Coast-based seat taking in suburbs around The Entrance: Wyong, Tuggerah, and Norah Head.

The closest contest in Dobell is between Labor and Liberal.

Polling shows the current Labor MP, Emma McBride (Assistant Minister for Mental Health), is vulnerable to a Liberal challenger.

Richmond

Richmond is a northern NSW regional seat taking in coastal suburbs like Byron Bay, Lennox Heads, stretching from Ballina to Tweed on the Queensland border.

The diverse electorate has three strong voting blocs: the Greens perform well around Byron, Labor polls strongly in the seat’s south, and the Nationals poll well in the regional centres.

Eden-Monaro

Eden-Monaro wraps around the ACT and stretches to the southernmost tip of coastal NSW. It’s a diverse electorate taking in a public servant-dense Queanbeyan down to the shorelines of Eurobodalla.

Pollsters conventionally called Eden-Monaro a “bellwether” seat, meaning it often elects the party that forms government. However, Labor has held it since 2016 (and has only been in government since 2022).

Macarthur

Macarthur is an outer-western Sydney seat based around Campbelltown, Rosemeadow, and Leppington.

Like neighbouring Werriwa (previous slide), it’s a closely-watched seat due to growing rates of mortgage stress.

The Coalition has been targeting areas like Macarthur in the outer-suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne.

Other NSW seats

LIBERAL

Banks 3.2%
Lindsay 6.3%
Hughes 7.0%
Hume 7.7%
Berowra 9.8%
Mitchell 10.7%
Cook 12.4%
Farrer 16.4%

LABOR

Parramatta 4.6%
Shortland 5.8%
Macquarie 7.8%
McMahon 9.5%
Whitlam 10.1%
Greenway 11.5%
Chifley 13.5%
Kingsford Smith 14.5%
Cunningham 14.7%
Blaxland 14.9%
Watson 15.1%
Barton 15.5%
Sydney 16.7%
Grayndler 17.1%
Newcastle 18.0%

NATIONAL

Calare 9.7%

Page 10.7%

Lyne 13.8%
Riverina 14.8%
New England 16.5%
Parkes 17.8%

INDEPENDENT

Mackellar 2.5%
Warringah 11.0%