Who's going to win the election? Here's what the polls say

The first round of polls released during the federal election campaign shows the Coalition’s lead over Labor narrowing slightly.

On Friday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the federal election would be held on 3 May.

Albanese and Coalition Leader Peter Dutton have begun their respective campaigns in Queensland.

Over the next four and a half weeks, both leaders are expected to focus on the cost of living, energy, and health.

Polls

In Australia, media companies commission polling firms to conduct research about people’s voting intentions and top concerns.

For example, News Corp has its Newspoll, conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights, while Nine newspapers use Resolve Strategic.

YouGov has been conducting seat-by-seat analysis of polling figures.

Australia has a preferential voting system. As such, polling companies gather data about voters’ top choice (primary vote) and then calculate the most likely winner after the flow of preferences to the major parties, called the two-party-preferred basis (2PP).

Primary votes

Two-party preferred

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2025 trends

Earlier this year, the Coalition appeared set to win more seats than Labor.

The trends indicated some anti-Government sentiment, predominantly due to growing cost of living pressures.

In mid-February, TDA analysis showed the Coalition leading in the polls by an average of 51% to Labor’s 48.4%.

The Coalition’s lead has slipped slightly to 50.1%, compared to Labor’s 49.3% more recently.

Campaign

The election campaign is now officially underway.

Both leaders began their campaigns in Brisbane, where Labor is hoping to pick up seats from the Greens and Coalition at the 3 May poll.

Most polls show it’s likely the election will result in a minority government, where neither Labor nor the Coalition can govern on its own.

In that situation, Albanese and Dutton will be required to negotiate with independents and minor parties to form a majority.