A major new report from the United Nations (UN) has confirmed the world is set to cross the 1.5°C global warming threshold within the next few years.
It comes over a decade after nearly 200 countries signed the Paris Agreement, promising to keep warming “well below” 2°C, and ideally under 1.5°C.
The report warns that once the world crosses that threshold, extreme weather, rising seas and the risk of irreversible tipping points will keep getting worse.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres says the world must make sure the “overshoot” above 1.5°C is “as small and short as possible”.
Global warming
Burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere.
Adding more CO₂ and greenhouse gases to the atmosphere causes hotter temperatures on Earth.
Climate experts have repeatedly warned a failure to reduce emissions will cause more extreme weather events, sea level rises, and food scarcity.
Paris Agreement
In 2015, most UN members signed up to the Paris Agreement, including Australia.
The agreement binds countries to try and limit their emissions so that global temperatures don’t increase more than 1.5°C above levels recorded during 1850-1900, after which fossil fuel emissions rapidly increased.
The Climate Action Tracker, which monitors individual nations’ progress in reducing emissions, said in 2024 that many countries, including Australia and the U.S, had taken “insufficient” action to meet Paris targets.
The U.S. has since pulled out of the agreement.
Time since
When countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world had already warmed by about 1.04°C above pre-industrial levels.
Emissions have kept climbing since then.
In 2024, the global average temperature rose above 1.5°C for a full calendar year for the first time.
In 2026, Sydney and Melbourne recorded their hottest winters on record.
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Over the same period, the UK reported its hottest summer on record.
New report
The new report, called Limiting Overshoot, is from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
It found that exceeding 1.5°C is now “widely assessed as unavoidable” within the next few years.
The report models a few scenarios.
The most optimistic outcome is if every country fully delivers on its current pledges plus “additional net-zero targets”, warming would peak at 1.8°C.
Based on the policies actually in place today, however, which fall short of those pledges, the report projects a median peak of around 2.6°C by 2100.
Despite this, the report says the Paris goals aren’t dead.
It outlines a pathway called “overshoot, peak and decline” as the best remaining option.
Under this pathway, temperatures would rise above 1.5°C, peak, and then be brought back down through immediate, deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
Getting back below 1.5°C would then require “net-negative” emissions: removing more carbon from the atmosphere than the world emits, largely through methods like large-scale reforestation.
It also warns that some damage will be irreversible even if the world eventually gets back below 1.5°C, including for ecosystems, coastlines and communities that may need to permanently relocate.
Above 1.5°C, risks rise with every extra fraction of a degree.
That includes a greater chance of hitting tipping points like “the destabilisation of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest”, and disrupted ocean currents.
What’s next?
The report lands ahead of COP31, the next major UN climate summit, being held in Antalya, Türkiye in November 2026.
Australia will serve as President of Negotiations for COP31, working alongside Türkiye and the Pacific, after withdrawing its bid to host the summit outright last year.
In response to the new report, Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said COP31 is a chance to “turn our ambition into action”.
